Friday, December 29, 2017

2017年投资总结

2017年终于要结束了。去年底,吉隆坡综合指数是1641.73点,今年指数结束在1796.81点,全年共上涨了155.08点,或9.45%。

今年我一共执行了24次买入,15次卖出。卖出的股项计有Ambank, Dnex, Favco, Hibiscs, KSL, Luxchem, Magni 和 Supermx. 从这些卖出中,获得了45.93%的回酬,其中Ambank, Magni 和 Luxchem 所获得的回酬是最大的。目前手上的股票还有“最后一役”,“安姐陪睡”,“大吉利事”与“一马先生”。这些股项的今年纸上盈利是40.74%。连同闲置的投资资金一起计算,今年的总投资回酬是41.03%,比起去年的 -0.77%回酬可说是一个大跃进,也比综合指数的9.45%出色。

检讨这一年来的表现,从一月开始,投资获利还相当的顺利,回酬逐月上升,从一开始的4.45%一直按月成长至九月份的46.54%。在九月中的高峰期,回酬甚至一度达到接近52%。过后,股市气氛不好,指数节节败退,回酬也跟着下跌,来到十一月底时只剩下 37.73%。幸好进入十二月中,指数峰回路转,来个大反弹,以致今年的投资回酬最终能够以41.03%结束。回想这一年来,我就和前几年一样,没花多少时间在股项的研究和选择上,只是留意大盘的变化。幸好大盘看得还可以,没什么失手,股项方面的选择也就马马虎虎,略受忽略,除了旧有的股项,新添玩票性质的股也没几个。总括一句,能有这样的表现,我也非常心满意足了。

今年,我在股票投资方面作出了以下突破:

1. 今年投入的资金以账面计是历来最高的。
2. 今年所获得的投资利润也是历来最高的,盈利甚至超越了1985至2013年(共28年)的总和。
3. 今年投入在股市研究的时间与精力相对来说是少的,主要是每到一个关键点时须看看与研究趋势与大盘是否有改变。平时,除了偶尔一些少量玩票性质的短暂买卖之外,剩下的就是不断地累积以及最后的部分套利清票。

自从2008年因美国次贷风暴而引起的股市大崩盘后,至今股市荣景已进入了第十个年头。总结这十年的股市,吉隆坡综合指数从2007年底的 1445.03点到今日的1796.81点,指数一共上涨了351.78点,或24.34%。期间,我的投资组合除了2008年与2016年面临轻微的亏损外,其余八年都获得了不错的回报。十年来,投资总回酬是807.15%,约等于吉隆坡综合指数增长的33倍。

由于整体的牛市已经持续了九年,股市崩盘不知什么时候会紧接其后。因此,接下来我将继续沿着今年的投资路线,把重点放在研究趋势与大盘上。我不求有高回报,只求能在股市崩盘前脱身。我相信,作为一个股市散户,投资的成败关键很大程度上还是落在对股市趋势与大盘的了解与掌握。只要能够做到大盘不利前抽身而退,投资事业就会变得事半功倍。至于股项的选择,我想要等到股市崩盘后才来大显身手会来得比较轻松。展望2018年,预料上半年股市将表现平稳美好。至于接下来的日子,我想机会与风险并存,充满着变数,是我蛮期待的。接下来的两三年,也许对大家来说都是丰收年。

后语:大家看到了吗?投资股票如果不能避开崩盘熊市的话,十年来吉隆坡综合指数平均每年只增长2.4%,比银行定存的利率还不如。这十年的投资可说是漫长的,间中的曲折波折也是史无前例,很考分析和技巧的。也许十年也可以作为告一段落的借口,明年这部落格的呈现或许会收敛一些。


20 comments:

  1. 感谢逆风叔分享,让各位读者能间接获得逆风叔的经验。
    这一些都是很难得的。

    希望明年逆风叔看到大势不对时能在这里写一写提醒大家就好,谢谢逆风叔XD

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    1. 股票投资是一门终身事业。只有抛掉拐杖,边走边学,才能自立到终点。要是信心不足,小心翼翼就行了。

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    2. 恩,谢谢逆风叔指点。
      选股方面有信心了,但是对于大势拿捏还不是很好,股龄尚浅(四年)。

      目前还是马金到有点凶(58%),自己偶尔也怕怕,但是又不想错过机会,自己都会和自己产生矛盾(卖出后又会买进),哈哈!XD

      不知逆风叔年轻时有遇到这样的事吗?可否指导一下该如何矫正心态?

      先谢谢逆风叔了,有空才回,谢谢了XD

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    3. 投资股票其实就是投资“probability”。投资不是“赌”,也不是“博”运气。投资是在自己认为相当有把握时才执行。当你感觉到“也怕怕”时,意味着你在投资上已经踩过了底线,把probability纯粹放在“希望”上。调整你的mindset 就行了。至于“卖出后又会买进”,如果“又会买进”是基于你已大彻大悟,明白又会买进后的probability, 知道卖出后又会买进是一项正确的决定,在probability上会带来正投资利润,那并没有什么问题。

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    4. 投资要有胜算,每一笔买卖都不能建立在“没有基础的希望”上,必须建立在high probability 上。

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    5. 谢谢逆风叔指点,下次买卖前我会参考Probability。
      明年我也会调整一下马金,减少怕怕的感觉 XD

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    6. 祝逆风叔新年快乐!
      在新的一年继续大赚!有机会一起在Kinta Hotel(Ipoh)喝鬼佬凉茶吹水XD

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  2. 风叔看大盘趋势技术真的了不起。

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  3. 风叔,请问油价起对luxchem是利好或利空?谢谢,新年快乐。

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    1. 只要波动不是突如其来,是缓慢的,油价的起跌对它的影响不大。

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  4. 谢谢风哥!
    2018继续发发!

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  5. The most impressive part throughout 2008 and 2017 was the losses you made much lower than klci index. What were your strategies done in 2008 and 2016 respectively in term of stock/industry pick, invested capital amount and others?

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    1. The market crashed in 2008 and I have unloaded all my shares before the crash. In exact, I have envisaged the risk and therefore disposed all shares before end of 2007. The losses incurred only some time after the crash while I started accumulating again at later time of the year. For 2016, I started taking profit for some certain counters when the market sentiment was turning bad and started accumulating again when the market stabilised. For stock pick, my strategy is to collect stocks only if I realise their share price's downside risk is limited based on fundamental and techical analysis.

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    2. This comment has been removed by the author.

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    3. The interesting portion was how you knew the crisis came at 2008 and unloaded all stocks before that?
      Seem you had successfully avoided 2 financial downturn (i consider 2016 also a downturn caused by low oil price). Awesome!

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    4. Actually, I didn't know when the crisis would arrive. I only felt through various source obtained that the crisis is imminent, so no mood to remain staying in the stock market. The stock market technical charts also help me a lot in arriving this conclusion. In brief, techinal charts always give some clues to me regarding the broad market direction.

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    5. TA can be so powerful when used it in professional way.

      Happy new year.
      For 2018, what do you think which sectors or industries will be blooming base on current and trending commodity prices and currency exchange movement?

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    6. 2018 will be a very speculative year for stocks, especially for those with "hot themes". The themes are very broad, and can be swifting from one to another, and so on.

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    7. 要克服“怕怕,但是又不想错过机会的矛盾心理,只有通过再学习,直到自己更了解股市、对股市更有信心为止。

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